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Climate: making decisions for what's to come

Climate: “At this point in the year, the accuracy of long-term predictions is low.”

How will the weather be for the next quarter?

14/6/2019

 

According to meteorologist Carlos Di Bella, climate variability does not allow us to define specific events in the medium term.

Changes in the mean temperature and the interannual variability of rainfall are now a frequent situation.

In this context, El Niño plays a key role in seasonal climate fluctuations. Its prediction is therefore a very important tool for decision making in the agricultural sector.

“Decisions, based on El Niño, such as changing the sowing date, the crop to be sown or favorable management practices, would allow us to reduce the negative effects that could produce extreme climatic events,” says agricultural engineer Carlos Di Bella, a specialist in agro-meteorology.

Doubts and certainties

According to the meteorologist, there are questions that the producer must ask in order to understand and promote the use of these tools for decision making. “Are these El Niño predictions accurate?” asked Di Bella, in a report prepared for the company S4.

“At this point in the year, the degree of accuracy and reliability of the long-term response is low. In autumn, whatever the signal, studying the impact that these events would have on the rain is not very significant in the Pampas region.

Di Bella assures, for example, that at this moment of the year predicting this event is not very precise in the medium and long term. Therefore, quantifying its effect on the Pampas region in terms of the occurrence of rainfall is not very significant. “El Niño, La Niña, or neutral years do not differ significantly,” explains an agrometeorology specialist.